6 reasons why Hearts fans should be confident for the final 5 games

Hearts have five games remaining in what could be a special season. <i>(Image: NQ Design)</i>
Hearts have five games remaining in what could be a special season. (Image: NQ Design)
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Here we go then. Five games to go. 450 minutes of Scottish Premiership football is all that’s left.

Five games, five opponents and 450 tense, nerve-shredding minutes between Heart of Midlothian and Premiership glory. A title that has been 66 years in the making. How many minutes, you ask? Too many. But if you must know: 34,719,840 minutes.

Anyway, it all starts on Saturday. The first post-split top-six fixture gets under way in the early evening when Celtic host Falkirk. For Hearts, who are the last of the title challengers to play this weekend, it all starts on Sunday in the Edinburgh derby. A monumental encounter in the fixture’s long and, at times, one-sided history.

Then it is Rangers, Motherwell, Falkirk and, finally, Celtic in the east end of Glasgow on the final day. 

As the nerves and tension continue to build, let's look at the reasons why Hearts fans should be confident heading into the final five games (and a few reasons to be wary).

Record v top six

To be the best, you have to beat the best. That’s what Hearts have done consistently over the season. It is a key reason why they are where they are. In big games, more often than not, this Hearts side have risen to the challenge and delivered. 

Hearts can take so much confidence from recent evidence. The team’s record against the rest of the top six throughout the season isn’t just the best, it’s the best by a considerable margin, only strengthened following the come-from-behind win over Motherwell

Questions were asked of the side following a four-game winless run when they headed to Celtic Park. They produced a performance with maturity, control and a whole lot of cojones. They were the first Hearts side to win at Ibrox in over a decade. They produced not one but two late wins in the derby. They came from behind to earn four points against Motherwell. They have so far completed the league sweep of Falkirk. 

In total, Hearts have dropped just 12 points in 15 games against the top six. In nine games against the bottom three, Hearts dropped 12 points. 

This is a Hearts side, it could be argued strongly, that is better placed to play the fixtures they are about to encounter. The team are effective against teams that want control. They are effective at winning the ball back higher up the pitch and playing in transitions rather than against teams who are happy to allow Hearts the ball and sit off of them. 

Home record

"Tynecastle's brilliant now. I love it. It's special. Something is happening here and you can feel that," Derek McInnes said after the win over Motherwell earlier this month.

Making Tynecastle Park a fortress, one fans love coming to and opposition teams don't, was an early aim for the Hearts head coach.

That has been the case. Hearts have the best home record in the league. When the team face Hibs on Sunday in Leith, it will be 12 months since the team last lost at home in the league and 12 months since the team last lost in 90 minutes in all competitions at Tynecastle.

In the club's history, there have been six seasons when the team have gone unbeaten in a league season at home. Only two of those – the 1957/58 champions and 1985/86 runners-up – have been in the last 120 years.

Ideally, three of the last five games would be at home, but arguably the most important of the five fixtures is at home when Rangers come to EH11 in two weeks.

Front two

In Lawrence Shankland and Claudio Braga, Hearts have a strike pairing with 34 goals between them in all competitions. Understandably, McInnes recently said he wouldn't swap either.

With both in the team, Hearts always have a chance, always have a threat.

Braga has arguably the signing of the season in Scotland. He combines effervescence and energy with the ability to beat defenders in ground and aerial duels and to sniff out goals, as he did against Motherwell for his most recent strike.


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Shankland is simply the best striker in the league. He makes the team, individually and collectively, better with the way he knits everything together in the final third.

Hearts have scored in 29 of the 33 league games they have played this season. Only one of those games was when Shankland was playing.

McInnes' men, with Shankland and Braga, have the firepower to win games.

Defensive record

With the 3-1 win over Motherwell, Hearts took possession of having the best defence in the league in terms of goals conceded.

In 26 of the 33 league games, Hearts have conceded one goal or fewer. They concede the fewest clear shots in the league and only Hibs concede fewer shots from set pieces.

It is more impressive when you consider the lack of continuity in the last few months due to injuries and suspension, and the fact that there has not been a regular right-back for the entire season.

The likes of Michael Steinwender, Frankie Kent, Jamie McCart and Stephen Kingsley have all largely stepped in and stepped up when required.

Behind them, despite using three different goalkeepers, mistakes have largely been kept to a minimum and when Alexander Schwolow, who has brought a calmness to the backline, and Craig Gordon have been called upon, they have delivered.

Character

After defeat to Aberdeen, that was meant to be it for the Hearts title challenge. As it was when they lost to Hibs on December 27. On a number of other occasions, the bubble was meant to have burst, or they were expected to fall away.

They haven't. Hearts have never lost two games in a row this season. After four of the defeats, they have gone out and won the next game.

There has been a different kind of pressure on Hearts than there would be on Celtic and Rangers in such a position. For the latter two, there is an expectation, internally and externally, that they win, win, win when they are top of the league.

For Hearts, there has been an expectation, externally, of falling away, of the challenge not lasting. Because that is what we are used to in Scottish football. It has been ingrained in our psyche for the last 40 years.

Hearts showed their character in the 3-1 win at Easter Road. (Image: Andrew Milligan)

Not only have Hearts dealt with setbacks from week to week, whether it is losing a game or losing key players, but they have also dealt with setbacks within games.

Thirteen points have been won from losing positions. Only Rangers have scored more from the 76th minute onwards.

There is no better example of that character than two games in the space of four days. Hearts played Dundee at Dens Park on a Sunday and then hosted St Mirren at Tynecastle Park on the Wednesday. Across the two games, Hearts played 135 of the 200 minutes with 10 men. Hearts collected six points and conceded no goals.

Top of the league

Perhaps the most important aspect is the fact that Hearts are the team that are at the top of the Scottish Premiership going into the split.

It's a place they have been for the majority of the season. Come Saturday, they will have been in the position for the last 210 days, barring 23 hours when they had a game in hand over Rangers.

Hearts are in the position everyone else wants to be in. They have the advantage, even if it is just a point. But that point could be huge in the run-in.

Cast your mind back to the Aberdeen game, the first of the season, and even after Tony Bloom's eye-opening comments, no one would have expected Hearts to be going into the split top of the league. It's a position every single Hearts fan would have taken before kick-off that Monday evening in Gorgie.


Now, of course, as is the way for those who follow Hearts, things are not as straightforward. To provide some balance, there are a few areas that provide concern or act as a reminder to be wary:

Away record

In general, the away record has been pretty good. Certainly, when you consider what the away record is in general for Hearts. However, of the top three, Hearts have collected the fewest points on the road.

It has been a recent issue. Following the 3-0 win over Dundee United in January, Hearts have not won outside of EH11. Not only that but performances have been inconsistent at best. There have been moments and periods of really good play but longer periods of struggle, notably the 90 minutes at Rugby Park.


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Hearts have three of their games away from home, starting with Easter Road where there have won twice in their last eight at the venue. It's two wins in nine at Fir Park. As for Celtic Park, there is evidence from this season that Hearts can win there.

Wins at Easter Road and Fir Park would go a long way to pushing Hearts towards that title.

Injuries

Since the turn of the year, McInnes has seen a number of first-team players spend time on the treatment table or miss games through suspension.

Out of Schwolow, Oisin McEntee, Craig Halkett, Stuart Findlay, Harry Milne, Tomas Magnusson, Cammy Devlin, Beni Baningime, Alexandros Kyziridis, Shankland and Braga, only Kyziridis and Braga have been available for every game.

McEntee, Findlay, Milne, Devlin, Magnusson, Baningime and Shankland have all missed spells. As has Stephen Kingsley, who has been a key first-team player, allowing Milne to play different roles.

The good news is that the majority are back and will have benefited from a two-week period of training. Still, Magnusson is set to sit out the remainder of the season, McEntee could miss a spell and Milne is working his way back from a calf issue.

It's the same with all three title challengers but Hearts can do without any further injury issues.

Post-split record

Most Hearts fans will be aware that the team's record after the split as a top-six side isn't the best. And that's being generous.

Since the introduction of the split, Hearts have finished in the top six 19 times. Of the previous 18 times, which amounts to 90 games, Hearts have won just 22 times, a win percentage of 24.4 per cent. They have averaged under five points.

You have to go back to 2006/07 for the last time Hearts won more than once in the top six after the split. Since then, there have been eight wins in 11 campaigns.

While that is an awful record. Context is important. Few of those sides are as good as the current iteration and none are playing for anything as big as this season.

Rather than finishing this article on a downer. Return to the first few sections. The current Hearts side's record against the current top six. The team's character. The firepower. The defence.

The fact Hearts come into the final five games top of the Scottish Premiership.

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