Should Lawrence Shankland be Scotland's No.1 striker for Euro 2024

Steve Clarke has several selection headaches awaiting him when he chooses his squad for this summer’s European Championships. This will be the second consecutive Euros finals that Clarke has guided Scotland to. The challenge now is to build on the previous showing, when the country bowed out without a win and a solitary goal to their name.

Among Clarke's biggest challenges will be selecting the forwards he takes to Germany. The reduction from 26 players in Euro 2020 to 23 players in the upcoming tournament will leave the manager with what is expected to be three places for centre-forwards. Clarke is known to be loyal to players who have performed well for him previously, meaning the likes of Che Adams and Lyndon Dykes have an advantage over others when it comes to their selecting chances, while Ryan Christie can play across several positions, meaning his versatility may also aide his selection and potentially open another spot for a striker. Clarke has named all three of these players, as well as Heart of Midlothian's Lawrence Shankland, in the squad to face the Netherlands and Northern Ireland in the upcoming doubleheader, which puts them all in a good place to be in the final squad for this summer’s tournament.

Every Hearts fan is well aware of Shankland's striking talent. And there would be plenty who, understandably, would make the case for the 28-year-old to lead the line in Germany. After all, it is accepted, certainly in EH11, that he is the country's best finisher.

With that, we have compared the nine players in the running for a spot on the plane to Germany. A ranking system of these nine forwards was created based on their performance in several key metrics, with the differences in quality of leagues taken into consideration. Percentile ranks were found for these players in comparison to centre-forwards who appear regularly in their respective leagues. Being in the 99th percentile shows that you are the best in the league, 50th percentile is average, and 1st percentile is the worst.

These percentiles were then compared to Hearts fans' No.1 choice: Shankland.

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Lawrence Shankland

Let’s start with the man himself. Jambos are hopeful of seeing the forward adding to his seven caps in the four friendlies Scotland have lined up before the Euros, and his goal-scoring form this season has set him in good stead to do that. His 27 goals and four assists in 37 club appearances this season, added to his 28 goals and four assists in 47 games last season, make him hard to ignore - and almost makes it harder to argue against his place in the starting line up rather than for it.

Shankland doesn’t just score goals, though. The Hearts captain is in the 91st percentile for touches in the box and shots per 90, which contributes to his impressive goal-scoring record. He also sits in the 61st percentile for expected assists (xA), proving he creates good chances for his team-mates, and the 88th percentile for successful attacking actions, showing his importance in the top end of the park.

Not only is he highly impressive in the final third, but his involvement in Hearts' build-up play is second to none. He passes the ball more than any other striker in the league and ranks in the top 10 per cent for number of progressive passes and passes to the final third, while also ranking highly for his dribbling metrics. Clarke likes his forwards to be combative and hard-working, and Shankland certainly doesn’t shy away from putting in the hard yards. He’s involved in a high number of duels and intercepts the ball regularly and, according to the CIES football observatory, he also covers the 10th most distance of all forwards in the 32 European top flights, outside of the big five leagues.

Lyndon Dykes

Dykes is a mainstay in the Scotland side, no matter how he’s performing for his club. Dykes has had a poor season for QPR this year, and really doesn’t stand out in most possession and attacking metrics. However, he does rate highly in his off-the-ball metrics, something that is highly sought after by Clarke. He challenges for and wins an abundance of duels and aerial duels, whilst also intercepting the ball regularly. He always has an incredible work ethic when wearing a Scotland top, and is a known quantity around the camp.

Che Adams

In my opinion, Adams is probably the biggest favourite to play the most out of all of the contenders. He’s playing in a tough league and is performing very well. He’s quick, hard-working, and contributes effectively at the top end of the pitch as well as being heavily involved in the build-up play for Southampton. He’s also a known quantity around the Scotland camp, which works in his favour. He ranks in the 60th percentile or better for all attacking metrics outwith shooting accuracy, something that is common with players who shoot more often. He’s involved in a large amount of his side’s build up play, ranking in the 80th percentile or better for passes, progressive passes and passes to the final third, doing so with a good amount of accuracy. Off the ball, he ranks highly for duels and aerial duels won, as well as intercepting the ball regularly.

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Ryan Christie

Another player that is a regular in the Scotland squad. Christie has been playing as a deep-lying midfielder for his Bournemouth side this season and has been very impressive. A player that the stats will not favour due to the positional change, but one that will have a high chance of going to the tournament this summer for that reason. He’s a utility man who could play in four or five different roles for Scotland, and even though he may not be guaranteed to start, he will be pretty much guaranteed to be on the plane.

Kevin Nisbet

With 10 caps, Nisbet would have been hoping for a chance to prove himself in the final friendlies before the summer but he has not played since January due to injury. He was first capped when on good form for Hibs in 2021, but has since had a cruciate ligament tear and has struggled to perform at the same standard for Millwall as he was when he was capped previously. He’s scored five goals in 26 appearances in England this season, and creates a good level of chances for his team-mates, leaving him in the 69th percentile for xA. In possession, he contributes a high number of progressive passes, as well as having a high accuracy in progressive passes, passes to the final third, and passes to the penalty area.

Oli McBurnie

McBurnie has been capped 17 times for Scotland but has yet to find the net in dark blue. The Sheffield United striker has respectable data throughout the chart but excels in an attacking and off-the-ball sense. With four goals and two assists in 910 minutes in the Premier League, he ranks well in these metrics. He also has a high goal conversion rate, xA and number of shots per 90. Out of possession, he ranks very highly for the number of duels and aerial duels and does so with a good success rate while also intercepting the ball regularly. In possession, he is evidently weakest, which will probably be his downfall for a potential call-up.

READ MORE: Lawrence Shankland: Examining why the Hearts ace is the best finisher in Scotland

Jacob Brown

Brown has six caps for Scotland, the most recent of which came in November 2023 against Norway, where Clarke favoured him to Shankland to start. An exceptional player when you look at his off-the-ball efforts, but doesn’t offer much for a weak Luton team in possession or attack. For me, I believe he was brought in as a different option to Dykes or Adams, but it’s evident that Brown is still behind them both in the pecking order.

Tommy Conway

Conway has been on fine form for Bristol City and the Scotland Under 21s. He’s one of the biggest outsiders with a chance for a call-up, but no doubt will still be watched carefully by Clarke’s team. The youngster has seven goals in 30 appearances in the English Championship and has become a regular for Scot Gemmill's Under-21s. Euro 2024 may well come a bit early for the young forward, but will be hopeful of making his senior debut in the coming years.

Ryan Hardie

Another outside chance who will see these Euros as coming too early. The 26-year-old has been capped for Scotland at every age group but has yet to appear for the first team. He’s been performing well for Plymouth in the English Championship, and his stock is now at the highest it’s ever been. The former Rangers and Livingston striker has managed to score 12 goals and assist four times in 31 appearances this season and has a good spread of positive statistics across the three different areas of our chart. Unfortunately, I think he’s too far down the pecking order to start learning German in preparation for this summer.

READ MORE: Where does Lawrence Shankland rank among Hearts' all-time great goal scorers?

Ranking System

Now for the ranking system. We take out all personal opinions and leave the decision in the hands of my statistic-based ranking system. First, let’s look at the goals scored by all of the forwards this season. To adjust for different numbers of games played, we have used goals per 90 as our comparison metric. Shankland leads the way by a significant distance, with Adams and Hardie filling the podium places. Christie is the obvious disappointment, but playing in a very defensive role for Bournemouth has left him very little in the way of an opportunity to score.

When then taking all relevant data into consideration and weighting it according to how important the metric is for a forward player for the Scotland team, we are left with the ranking system shown below. It’s no surprise that Adams and Shankland are high up that list, but the place on the table occupied by McBurnie isn’t one that many will expect. Scotland fans will be thinking that Dykes may be close to losing his place in the Scotland squads, but as previously mentioned, he is a player that Clarke both trusts and likes.

Finally, we adjust the rankings for the level of the competition that the player is currently plying their trade. With McBurnie ranking highly in the weighted ranking chart and playing at a higher level than the players above him, he has managed to take top spot in the ranking system. It’s hard to adjust for the quality of leagues though - as we’ve seen so many times with Premier League stars coming up to Scotland to fail at one of the Old Firm clubs - so I prefer to look at the weighted table without adjustment for the specific leagues.

My prediction? I think Clarke will take three strikers who play a centre-forward role: Adams, Shankland, and Dykes. I think he’ll also take Christie, but not consider him as a centre-forward, even though he may be utilised in that role in some situations. I’d be interested in seeing Hardie getting a shot in the final two friendlies, but highly doubt this will happen.